Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for November 16 – 22, 2009.
Valid: 11/15/2009.

Highlights:

– Slight chance of showers on Monday across central and eastward
Oklahoma. Moderate snowfall is expected in the panhandle with 2-3
inches and a trace in northwest Oklahoma.

– Thunderstorms, with maybe a few low-end severe, are possible on Saturday.

– Temperatures will be near 50F Monday-Tuesday, upper 50s Wednesday,
low 60s Thursday, mid 60s Friday, low 60s Saturday, mid 50s Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 5%
– Tropical Development: < 5%

Discussion:

12z models are in decent agreement regarding the movement of the
current cutoff low over Kansas. Surface dewpoints are generally in
the upper 40s to mid 50s across the state. Additional rain is
expected on Monday as the cold core moves across the state. Snow is
likely in the panhandle area where 2-3 inches accumulation appears
possible. Light snow is also possible in northwest Oklahoma Monday
into the evening hours, only a trace is expected.

Upper system will then lumber east, leaving the region in ridging
aloft. A small shortwave trof moves across the area late Thursday,
but impacts should be limited to cloud cover. A medium wavelength
trof approaches on Saturday with models showing mid 50's dewpoints
moving into Oklahoma. Rain appears a good bet with this system as it
moves by late Saturday. A Pacific cold front will move through the
state resulting in cooler temperatures on Sunday.

I made little change to the MOS forecasts as they seem to have a good
handle on temperatures this week. The 5% chance of snow covers the
small spatial extent and limited accumulation expected through Monday
night. I put in 10% svr mainly for southern Oklahoma on Saturday if
moisture can return.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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