Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for November 9 – 15, 2009.
Valid: 11/08/2009.

Highlights:

– Showers are possible on Monday across the state. Thunderstorms are
possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

– Temperatures will be in the low 70s on Monday, upper 60s Tuesday,
mid 60s Wednesday, near 70 Thursday – Friday, low 70s Saturday, upper
60s on Sunday.

– Hurricane Ida is heading for AL/FL this afternoon. Significant
impacts are not expected.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 20%

Discussion:

Ida is the primary feature of interest early this week, but admittedly
it will have no impact on Oklahoma. Well, it will have some impact as
it limits moisture return ahead of Monday's cold front.

Weak southern stream shortwave trof will move east of Texas on Monday
as a weak cold front moves into Oklahoma. Showers are possible along
this frontal boundary as it moves through Oklahoma late Monday into
Tuesday. Tuesday – Thursday a southern stream ridge sets up across
the region. This will keep things quiet until the weekend. On
Friday, the mid-level flow buckles as a medium wavelength trof
develops over the western U.S. 12z GFS/ECMWF remain in disagreement
with this system. I'm going to go with the GFS timing and placement
of the system. Modified moisture return is expected ahead of this
system which should provide enough support for thunderstorms late
Saturday, possibly into Sunday. Severe potential looks to be on the
low side per the GFS. If the prior ECMWF solutions verify, then
better moisture return would increase severe potential. I'm keeping
things on the low side right now given the past few events and
progressive mid-level pattern.

Followed GFS MOS numbers closely this week. MET has 78F tomorrow but
seems a little high given time of year and expected cloud cover. As
OUN has noted, there is little to no cold air in Canada, allowing the
very pleasant mild November days to continue this week. The average
first freeze for OKC is this week and looks like we'll make it by
without one.

Not much to mention on Ida that probably hasn't already been talked about.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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