Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for November 2 – 8, 2009.
Valid: 11/01/2009.

Highlights:

– Temperatures near 70F Monday-Sunday, all pops zero.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 5%

Discussion:

Sensible weather will be at a min this week. A longwave trof will
dominate the 500mb CONUS pattern in the eastern U.S. This will put
Oklahoma in northwest flow, which this time of year is a dry flow.
ECMWF/GFS agree on this with the region transitioning to a broad, low
amplitude ridge late Friday. Two cold front passages are expected
this week, the first one last Monday and the second one on Friday.
These fronts are Pacific origin and have little cold air with them.
As such, with plenty of sun, expect very little change in temperature.

Temperatures may vary a little more than forecast on days after the
cold fronts, but in general a very pleasant early November (mid-fall)
week is on-tap.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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