Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for October 5 – 11, 2009.
Valid: 10/06/2009.

Highlights:

– Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening through
Thursday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely during this
time period. Slight chance of showers on Sunday.

– Temperatures will be near 70F today, low 70s Wednesday, upper 70s
Thursday, 60F Friday – Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 5%

Discussion:

Part of the southwest U.S. cutoff low is moving east today across the
northern U.S. The main impact of this system is to push a cold front
through Oklahoma. While skies are clearing across the state, CAA will
keep things on the cool side today. Showers and thunderstorms
continue to push southeast out of the state and expect a dry evening
and much of Wednesday.

By Wednesday evening the remains of the southwest U.S. cutoff low will
start to progress east and should result in isentropic lift over the
Texas frontal boundary. Along with this a northern stream longwave
trof takes shape over the central U.S. These features should result
in widespread rain late Wednesday into Thursday. Canadian cold front
enters the state late Thursday and clears by Friday setting up a
cool/dry weekend.

Models now want to take the warm front north of Oklahoma on Thursday
and I really think I'm about to get hit in the head. I went upper
70s, but could very well be mid 60s on Thursday if the front isn't
able to move northward. 00z ECMWF indicates at least two reinforcing
cold air surges over the weekend as shortwave trofs move through the
mean longwave position over the northern U.S. As such, there is
midlevel support for these cold fronts. I've gone low on the temps
this weekend. Models also show one of these shortwave trofs moving
over Oklahoma on Sunday. Since moisture will be in central Texas, I
wouldn't be surprised to see a little shower activity and clouds.
Another reason to go low on the temperatures.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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