Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for September 14 – 20, 2009.
Valid: 09/13/2009.

Highlights:

– Temperatures will be in the mid 70s on Monday, upper 70s Tuesday,
low 80s Wednesday – Sunday. There is a slight chance of rainfall all
week. There isn't one particular period of enhanced rainfall and
amounts shouldn't be too high.

– The remnants of Fred remain in the eastern Atlantic and are slowly
moving west. There is potential for development the next few days.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development 25%

Discussion:

Very nice rainfall the past few days with a good part of Oklahoma
measuring at least a little bit. Additionally, the clouds have kept
the state in the 70s and allowed the moisture to soak-in.

Tropical low over Texas, responsible for the current rainfall, is
progged by the models to move east into Arkansas. This should reduce
precipitation chances for the region, but tropical moisture will
remain in-place this week. The jet stream is displaced well north of
the region and the amplitude is low this week. Models indicate a
ridge may develop over the western U.S. with a stronger trof east
towards the end of the period. However, this is a low confidence
forecast and will go with persistence for now.

What's left of Fred is still out there and may redevelop into a
tropical system. At this point there isn't much happening in the
tropics and without the subtropical ridge a system problem wouldn't
make it to the U.S. Of course assuming it didn't form in the Gulf.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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