Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for September 8 – 13, 2009.
Valid: 09/08/2009.

Highlights:

– Temperatures will be in the low 90s today and tomorrow with upper
80s on Thursday. Friday will be in the low 80s, Saturday/Sunday mid
70s. Rain is possible all week, with the best chance
Wednesday/Thursday.

– Tropical Storm Fred is located in the far eastern Atlantic.
Currently it is no threat to the the U.S.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 50%

Discussion:

Mother Nature is reminding us summer is not over, well at least for a
few more days. Models are in good agreement on the development of a
closed low over the central U.S. by Friday and it retrograding
southwest over the weekend. A Rex Block ends up developing during the
weekend as a ridge forms in the northern U.S.

Impacts for Oklahoma appear to be mainly higher rain chances much of
this week, with a focus on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will
cool dramatically by the weekend as a strong cold front moves through
and rain/clouds keep temperatures on the cool side. Fall is two weeks
away, so the going forecast fits climatology.

Climatological peak for tropical storm season is Thursday, with a slow
decline through October 1st. Fred is the only thing out there right
now and so far few systems can survive. I believe there has been only
one hurricane this season, however Fred does have the potential to be
hurricane two.

I went with the GFS today/tomorrow on temperatures and then below
consensus late week. Have seen lots of mid-70s the past few weeks
despite high sun angle. Believe the same is possible due to the cold
front and expected clouds.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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