Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for August 31 – September 6, 2009.
Valid: 08/31/2009.

Highlights:

– Temperatures will be in the upper 70s today, mid 80s Tuesday, upper
80s Wednesday – Thursday, mid 80s Friday – Sunday. Showers are
possible Friday – Sunday.

– NHC is monitoring one tropical system this afternoon which may
become a tropical depression over the next few days.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 30%

Discussion:

Very pleasant weather for late summer, one would think the State Fair
is going. Conditions will continue to be atypical of late summer with
temperatures below normal much of the week. Given that normal is now
89F, I have to be careful with that statement.

Weak subtropical ridge will continue just west of Oklahoma for a few
days as a weak shortwave trof overtops and it and moves southeast over
KS/MO/OK. The surface high currently dominating the eastern U.S. will
shift east and allow a warmup for the region Wednesday into Thursday.
My Thursday temperatures are a little higher given the potential for
rain to start later than forecast. Either way, a decent chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be present as the shortwave trof moves
into the area. This should keep temperatures down a little through
the weekend.

The western U.S. ridge is replaced by a medium wavelength trof by the
weekend. Impacts on Oklahoma appear limited at this point. OUN made
a good point about moisture from once of the Pacific hurricanes.
We'll see how all that unfolds but right now it appears to be more of
a temperature hit than anything. Impacts would be felt just beyond
this forecast period, if at all.

NHC is watching one tropical wave and we're in the peak of hurricane
season the next few weeks. I've kept the prob at 30%, although it is
most likely much higher.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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