Severe Weather Discussion for August 10 – 16, 2009.
– Temperatures will be in the upper 90s today – Tuesday, mid 90s
Wednesday – Thursday, upper 90s Friday – Saturday. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible today – early Wednesday.
– NHC is watching a weak tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 20%
Last week taught me to stop the all pops zero stuff, got over two
inches of rain.
Longwave pattern appears to be shifting this week to a longwave trof
in the west and a ridge over the eastern U.S. The overall weather
this week will be the usual summertime temperatures with a little
relief late Tuesday and Wednesday due to showers and thunderstorms.
The ridge will be nearby during the middle of the week but doesn't
seem strong enough to allow temperatures to get out of control. I
lowered temperatures a little Wed/Thu since the front will be nearby
and any lingering impacts from prior convection.
By Friday, the western U.S. trof develops with Oklahoma caught in the
middle between it and the ridge to the east. The models are in decent
agreement regarding the expected evolution this week. The GFS cranks
up a closed low in central Texas by Friday and really gets it going.
I tend to think this is a convective feedback problem, although would
be a nice rain producer for an area that needs it.
Climatological max drops one degree at the end of the week to 93F, so
it is all downhill from here!
NHC is watching an area of disturbed weather in the far eastern
Atlantic. Right now they give it a 30-50% chance of developing.
Since we are nearly the ramp up to peak tropical activity I went ahead
and bumped up the probability.
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