Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for August 3 – 9, 2009.
Valid: 08/02/2009.

Highlights:

– Return to summertime conditions with temperatures in the upper 90s
all week. All pops zero.

– Tropical activity remains low and little seen on the models.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 10%

Discussion:

Upper pattern will shift to sometime more typical of early August.
The western U.S. ridge will move east during the week and actually end
up over AR/KY area. Rising heights will bring warmer temperatures
back to Oklahoma, although green vegetation may offset the warmup just
a little. Today's high was 91F and a jump upwards tomorrow seems
possible as heights rise and winds turn southwest tomorrow afternoon.
Heights will continue to rise as the upper ridge shifts east over the
region and ends up over the southeast U.S. late Saturday.
Temperatures will probably cool next weekend, but I'm going to keep
highs in the upper 90s for now. Models do appear to agree on a
western U.S. trof in a week or so, this may provide some relief to the
region.

Tropics continue to be quiet, although at this point not really all
that unusual. The revised forecast should be issued on Thursday.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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