Severe Weather Discussion for July 27 – August 2, 2009.
– Showers and some thunderstorms today – Friday. Temperatures will
be in the upper 80's Tuesday-Wednesday, mid 80s Thursday, low 90s
Friday, and mid 90s Saturday-Sunday.
– Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 5%
Models agree that the current pattern will remain through Friday.
This will keep northwest flow across the region and temperatures below
normal. The cold front parade looks to continue with another one on
Thursday. Have dropped temperatures and gone with the NAM-WRF.
By the weekend, models diverge on what the pattern will do. The GFS
moves the ridge eastward while the ECMWF keeps it in-place. The GFS
would favor climo while the ECMWF is ole reliable. Tough call, but
I'll go near normal at this point. I've smoothed the forecast out
given some of the ups/downs this week. There is no way I'd gone upper
70s today, so I'll start the forecast for Tuesday.
Temperatures are kept with persistence and a little warming this weekend.
No tropical activity so far and nothing on the horizon. This remains
wtthin climo for the next 1-2 weeks. By mid-August we usually see an
uptick in activity.
This message was sent using IMP, the Internet Messaging Program.