Severe Weather Discussion for July 20 – 26, 2009.
– Severe thunderstorms are likely Monday afternoon and especially
overnight. Widespread damaging winds are possible per SPC Day 2.
– Temperatures will be in the mid 90s on Monday, then 90F Tuesday –
Thursday, Friday-Saturday low 90s, and Sunday mid 90s.
– NHC is watching two systems in the eastern Atlantic, but currently
they have less than 30% chance of developing.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 25%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 10%
Pattern evolution, which occurred last week, will remain again this
week. This net result continues a high amplitude ridge over Arizona
and a weakening longwave trof over the eastern U.S. This puts
Oklahoma in northwest flow aloft, a rather odd occurrence for July.
The primary impact from this pattern will be somewhat below normal
temperatures. I've gone slight below climo through much of the week
and warm things up a little over next weekend as the flow flattens
out. A cold front is likely late Monday and another may approach on
SPC has a slight risk up with wording for a moderate tomorrow. Given
a strong shortwave trof and dewpoints in the mid 60s, a MCS appears
likely. Damaging winds are certainly possible and SPC is concerned
about widespread damaging winds.
Nothing much going on in the tropics right now, but I'll keep it at 10%.
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