Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for June 29 – July 5, 2009.
Valid: 06/28/2009.

Highlights:

– Temperatures in the mid 90s Monday – Wednesday, upper 90s
Thursday-Friday, low 90s Saturday-Sunday. Slight chance of rain
Saturday.

– Slight chance of tropical development as a system is located near
the Yucatan, however NHC notes less than 30% chance.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: 10%

Discussion:

Upper ridge has been displaced as of today and will shift westward
over AZ/NM for much of the week. Additionally, the ridge will be
weaker than the past few days with heights across Oklahoma around
590dm or less. This will make for cooler temperatures the first part
of the week. Towards the end of the work week, temperatures will
likely increase some as the high attempts to migrate east. A 500mb
longwave trof will setup over the eastern U.S. and have some presence
all week. A cold front is possible next week and temperatures have
been cooled somewhat for this potential. Also, added slight chance of
POPs on Saturday. Overall a typical early July week with the normal
high of 91F.

Tropics have a little activity, but nothing major is expected per climo.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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