Severe Weather Discussion for June 22 – 28, 2009.
– Temperatures will be in the mid 90s Monday – Sunday, all pops zero.
– Summer officially started this morning.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: < 5%
Subtropical ridge will retrograde west during the next 24 hours and
setup over Oklahoma for much of the week. Precipitation chances are
near zero through Friday, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Heights
won't get above 594dm given the current forecast, so I'm not going
100F for OKC. The FHBC of northwest and north-central OK will likely
see near 100F given dark ground in that area. Saturday/Sunday the
models indicate the ridge may weaken but there isn't great agreement
on this potential. I'm sticking with persistence and keeping things
dry under the 588dm ridge. I'd expect temperatures to continue slowly
creeping up as the ground dries out and the ridge strengthens. OKC
has had around 1.3 inches of rain for June, a small drop in the bucket
given the average near 5 inches.
Models don't show any tropical activity at this point and NHC shows
things are also quiet. For now will follow climo on tropical storm
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