Severe Weather Discussion for June 8 – 14, 2009.
– Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday – Friday. Wednesday
appears the best chance for widespread storms. While isolated severe
thunderstorms are expected, a moderate end event is not.
– Temperatures will be in the upper 80s Tuesday – Wednesday, low 80s
Thursday, mid 80s Friday-Saturday, low 90s Sunday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 20%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Tropical Development: < 55
Split flow will continue this week with a rather weak southern stream.
The northern jet stream will remain displaced unseasonably to the
north. The presence of a 588dm ridge over Texas and a southern stream
shortwave trof just west of California will provide for stronger flow
aloft across the region this week. While it will likely yield
organized severe thunderstorms, a medium-end event is not expected
given lack of a well defined shortwave trof moving across the region.
Models tend to agree that the shortwave trof just west of California
will remain there this week as a blocking pattern continues in the
southern jet. Recent ENSO update from NCEP (thanks Jay) indicates the
presence of a weak El Nino and this pattern would certainly fit such
an occurrence. Aside from a few MJO's in the Pacific, notable warming
has occurred and the resultant teleconnections have limited severe
thunderstorm episodes across Oklahoma. NCEP expects the El Nino to
continue during the summer months. I'd expect will be seeing a
moderate El Nino this coming winter, just a guess though.
Due to the presence of stronger flow aloft and a surface boundary,
storm chances are kept for Tuesday-Friday. Wednesday appears the best
chance for organized and widespread activity as the surface boundary
will coincide with a weak shortwave trof. This weekend the ridge
attemps to build back into the region and temperatures are increased
back into the 90s. I didn't make much use of the model MOS this
Significant tropical development is not expected this week per the
models and NHC.
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