Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for June 1 – 7, 2009.
Valid: 05/31/2009.

Highlights:

– Thunderstorms are likely late Tuesday into Wednesday. Severe
thunderstorms are also possible Saturday and Sunday.

– Temperatures will be in the upper 80s Monday-Tuesday, upper 70s
Wednesday, low 80s Thursday, upper 80s Friday-Sunday.

– Tropical Weather Season starts tomorrow. Storm information and
updates may be found at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 30%
– Storm Chase: 15%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Rex block remains firm just off the Pacific Coast, with a resulting
summertime pattern across the lower 48. The next few days will see
more of the same as the subtropical ridge temporarily weakens across
the central U.S. A cold front is expected late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Decent moisture return along with strong heating should
cause widespread thunderstorms along this feature. Amount of
instability and marginal wind shear should allow for severe
thunderstorms.

Upper ridge builds back into the region Thursday through much of
Saturday allowing temperatures to warm back up. 12z GFS/ECMWF both
hint at the southern stream low off the Pacific coast leaving the Rex
block and moving into the central U.S. Moisture should be in-place,
with stronger 500mb flow moving into the region. While SPC has not
outlooked the area, I do think there is decent potential for severe
thunderstorms.

Did not use the model MOS this week, went with persistence.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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