Severe Weather Discussion for May 25 – 31, 2009.
– Temperatures will be in the low 80s Monday – Thursday, mid 80s
Friday – Sunday.
– Showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday – Wednesday, severe
weather chances are low.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Unusually quiet period of weather will continue this week. Thanks to
Greg for the SPC data. SPC has not issued a weather watch since May
16th and for only the second time since 1955 there were no storm
reports on May 21st.
Sensible weather will again remain low this week as the atmosphere
continues in an August pattern. A weak low over the south-central
U.S. may result in showers and thunderstorms on Monday as it moves
northeast out of the region. Another weak low will approach the
region on Tuesday and leave on Wednesday. This system will have a
weak cold front with it. An upper ridge will form over the
central/western U.S. by Thursday and last the remainder of the week.
Models hint at some weakening of the ridge late in the period, but for
now I'll stick with persistence.
Followed the NAM Monday-Tuesday and went with persistence the rest of
the week. I think models are too low on afternoon temperatures.
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