Severe Weather Discussion for April 27 – May 3, 2009.
– Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Monday, Wednesday-Friday.
Large hail is the primary threat. A medium-end event could develop
on Thursday, but will hold off on it right now.
– Temperatures will be in the upper 70s on Monday, low 60s Tuesday,
low 70s Wednesday, low 80s Thursday, low 70s Friday, low 60s Saturday,
upper 60s Sunday.
Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 25%
Storm Chase: 5%
Winter Precip: < 5%
A good piece of the longwave trof out west ejected eastward last night
and this morning. The remaining energy will close off over the
northwest U.S. MCS in Texas has reduced low level moisture across
Oklahoma and as such only expected isolated severe storms along the
cold front as it moves through today. Cold front will move into north
Texas and stall. This boundary should return northward on Wednesday
with a continued chance of isolated severe thunderstorms. Models tend
to hint the remainder of the west coast system will move east around
Thursday with the ECMWF developing a large east coast system. The
upper system moving east on Thursday would tend to increase flow
across the region and models indicate decent thermodynamics. I'm not
convinced on how good of a setup it will be, but it is worth monitoring.
Cold front should move through the state on Friday setting up for a
cool and quiet weekend. Significant model divergence beyond Friday
makes the weekend and especially next week low confidence.
Temperature wise I followed the NAM through Thursday with some slight
modification upward on Tuesday. The GFS/ECMWF are blended
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