Chase Discussion for April 26, 2009.
Target: Elk City
Departure Time: 14:00 CDT
Expected Risk Area: Moderate – 10% tornado, 30%/10% hatched hail, 30% wind.
A few tornado warnings in the state today but no confirmed tornadoes
as of yet. Lots of hail reports and the coverage likely warranted to
the low-end moderate risk. Other than the hail, the severity of
this event did not play out as expected.
Attention then turns to Sunday. Prior forecast reasoning remains the
same. Longwave trof will move into the region somewhat out of phase
with peak heating. All models develop convection along the eastern
Texas panhandle dryline (south and north) by mid-morning. The impacts
from such an event are likely to result in reduced tornado threat but
decent hail threat. SPC may be tempted to go with a hatched area on
the tornado prob in-case the expected convection does not develop. It
has to be emphasized that the mid-morning convection is a major player
in what is expected tomorrow.
For now, will take a wait and see attitude with tomorrow's setup.
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