Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for February 23 – March 1, 2009.
Valid: 02/22/2009.

Highlights:

– Temperatures will be quite pleasant much of the week. Even after
the cold front on Thursday, we'll only be in the low 50s. So, Monday
near 60F, Tuesday mid 60s, Wednesday upper 60s, Thursday low 70s,
Friday near 50F, Saturday low 50s, and Sunday upper 50s.

– Isolated showers and maybe a few thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday and especially Thursday.

– Fire danger will be high through Thursday. While it will be
somewhat mitigated with increased moisture on Wednesday and Thursday,
concern will exits for far western sections.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Heading into late winter, sensible weather will be somewhat low this
week, except for Thursday. Temperatures will be quite pleasant and a
little warm given seasonable norms in the 56-58F range. Models are in
decent agreement that a broad and low amplitude ridge will setup over
the central U.S. much of the week. To the northeast a northern stream
longwave trof is exiting the east coast today with another one
expected on Wednesday. This next trof will bring a Canadian cold
front into the region. ECMWF appears a little faster with the front,
but will go with passage in Oklahoma City Thursday night. As such,
warm temperature will prevail during the first part of the week.
Additionally, Gulf recovery is underway from the prior intrusion with
an expected increase in moisture on Wednesday. Several weak southern
stream shortwave trofs are expected to move through the low amplitude
ridge and may be sufficient to develop showers and a few thunderstorms
across mainly eastern Oklahoma on Thursday as a dryline and cold front
move across the state. The precipitation potential will decrease with
the front late Thursday.

In the dailies, I've gone above model guidance the first part of the
week. I've been way low recently on temperatures, especially in the
second half of the week. Monday will be near 60F, with Tuesday in the
mid 60s, Wednesday in the upper 60s, Thursday low 70s, Friday near
50s, Saturday low 50, and Sunday upper 50s.

Beyond Sunday, the GFS reloads the eastern U.S. longwave trof early in
March. At the same time, a closed low off the California coast looks
to head inland. The GFS dampens this system out, but this is
typically a bias of the GFS. We'll see what happens.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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