Severe Weather Discussion 2009-2-3

Severe Weather Discussion for February 10, 2009.
Valid: 02/10/2009.

Highlights:

– Significant severe weather event looks likely this afternoon and
tonight. The greatest threat area is now east of a line from Lawton
to Kingfisher to Stillwater. Tornadoes and large hail will be the
primary threats early in the event. Strong tornadoes are possible
especially in south-central and southeast Oklahoma. Towards evening
time a squall line is likely to develop just west of I-35 and race
eastward during the overnight hours. Widespread destructive winds are
likely with this line of storms.

– Mesoscale convective discussion just issued, tornado watch likely
by 14:00 CST from central Oklahoma to central Texas.

Discussion:

Strong surface heating is occurring across much of the area, except
southeast OK and northeast Texas. This was expected, although the
forecast showers did not develop. Temperatures are in the mid 60s
across Oklahoma with low 70s in south-central sections. Dewpoints are
in the upper 50s to low 60s, per 12:00 CST Mesonet plot. Moisture
surge will continue through the afternoon hours across central and
eastern Oklahoma.

Running out of time to type this, so I'll mention that CAPE values are
1500 J/Kg in a small part of south-central Oklahoma into north-central
Texas at 11:00 CST. An area of 1000 J/Kg surrounds this area.
Thunderstorm initiation is likely within the next few hours.

Probabilities:

None

Chase Status:

Rob and Brett are probably going to head out.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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