Severe Weather Discussion 2009-2-2

Severe Weather Discussion for February 10, 2009.
Valid: 02/10/2009.

Highlights:

– Significant severe weather event is possible late this afternoon
into the overnight hours for central and especially eastern Oklahoma
southward into Texas. Widespread destructive winds and isolated
strong tornadoes are possible later today. Additionally, there is a
large hail threat mainly along the I-35 corridor. This is a
Particularly Dangerous Situation with the likelihood of widespread
severe thunderstorms later today.

Discussion:

Impressive shortwave trof will move into the region this evening as
very strong wind fields aloft over spread warm and moist air at the
surface. A dryline is expected to become established just west of
I-35 by late afternoon with temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s
along and east of the dryline with dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s.
West of the dryline, temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints in
the 30s will create a wildfire threat. Mid/high level clouds will
reduce surface heating part of the day, however this is expected to
abate by early afternoon, allowing for temperatures to warm across the
threat area. In southeast Oklahoma, shower activity may occur later
this morning and the overall impacts of said activity may serve to
reduce the threat of the severe weather setup today. Short-range
forecasting will have to monitor the threat over southeast Oklahoma
and any shower activity that may develop.

SPC Day 1 is on target and I'll just briefly summarize the threats
Thompson outlined. By late afternoon storms should develop along the
dryline in central Oklahoma southward into Texas. These storms will
rapidly move northeast with wind fields favoring discrete storms. As
such, supercells are likely from central Texas into central Oklahoma
this afternoon. The attendant threat of tornadoes is high with some
of them possibly strong. Long-lived supercells are likely in this
environment. After the initial development, the strong shortwave trof
mentioned above will move into the region with deep layer lift
occurring along the cold front as it overtakes the dryline. A long
squall line is expected to develop. Given the very strong winds
aloft, downward transport of momentum is likely and this will create a
widespread destructive wind threat for eastern Oklahoma and much of
central/eastern Texas.

It is emphasized that this is a dangerous situation. Persons in the
threat area are urged to review safety rules and be prepared for quick
action should a watch or warning be issued.

Probabilities:

None

Chase Status:

Monitoring.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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