Severe Weather Discussion for February 10, 2009.
– Significant severe weather event is possible late this afternoon into the overnight hours for central and especially eastern Oklahoma southward into Texas. Widespread destructive winds and isolated strong tornadoes are possible later today. Additionally, there is a large hail threat mainly along the I-35 corridor. This is a Particularly Dangerous Situation with the likelihood of widespread severe thunderstorms later today.
Impressive shortwave trof will move into the region this evening as very strong wind fields aloft over spread warm and moist air at the surface. A dryline is expected to become established just west of I-35 by late afternoon with temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s along and east of the dryline with dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s. West of the dryline, temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints in the 30s will create a wildfire threat. Mid/high level clouds will reduce surface heating part of the day, however this is expected to abate by early afternoon, allowing for temperatures to warm across the threat area. In southeast Oklahoma, shower activity may occur later this morning and the overall impacts of said activity may serve to reduce the threat of the severe weather setup today. Short-range forecasting will have to monitor the threat over southeast Oklahoma and any shower activity that may develop.
SPC Day 1 is on target and I’ll just briefly summarize the threats Thompson outlined. By late afternoon storms should develop along the dryline in central Oklahoma southward into Texas. These storms will rapidly move northeast with wind fields favoring discrete storms. As such, supercells are likely from central Texas into central Oklahoma this afternoon. The attendant threat of tornadoes is high with some of them possibly strong. Long-lived supercells are likely in this environment. After the initial development, the strong shortwave trof mentioned above will move into the region with deep layer lift occurring along the cold front as it overtakes the dryline. A long squall line is expected to develop. Given the very strong winds aloft, downward transport of momentum is likely and this will create a widespread destructive wind threat for eastern Oklahoma and much of central/eastern Texas.
It is emphasized that this is a dangerous situation. Persons in the threat area are urged to review safety rules and be prepared for quick action should a watch or warning be issued.