Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for December 8 – 14, 2008.
Valid: 12/07/2008.

Highlights:

– Thunderstorms are likely Monday evening with very isolated severe
thunderstorms possible across central and eastern Oklahoma. Impacts
would be brief small hail and gusty winds.

– Light snow is expected late Monday night in northwest Oklahoma,
spreading southeast across Oklahoma. Impacts in northwest Oklahoma
will likely be travel related but minimal. Elsewhere, impacts are not
expected.

– Very strong winds are expected on Tuesday across Oklahoma and when
combined with cold temperatures will make for a raw day. In areas
receiving snow, low visibilities will be a hazard for travelers.

– Temperatures will be in the 60s on Monday, falling into the upper
30s to mid 40s Tuesday and Wednesday. A warm up should start on
Thursday with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s warming into
the weekend with mid/upper 50s.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 10%

Discussion:

12z NAM/ECMWF are the picks this forecast period, although the GFS is
considered.

After an awesome day, we'll get one more before the cold weather
returns. 12z NAM/ECMWF are similar in dropping a southern stream
trough into the southwest U.S. and then lifting it into the central
U.S. on Tuesday. A lead and compact shortwave trof will proceed the
main system Monday evening. This one is shown by the NAM to move over
central Oklahoma during the overnight hours. This system combined
with warm temperatures on Monday and limited moisture return should
result in elevated hailers across central and eastern sections Monday
night.

A northern stream system will be moving east about the same time and
push a strong cold front into Oklahoma early Tuesday. This will
result in strong northerly winds and falling temperatures during the
day. The main southern stream system will move into the area on
Tuesday, but the best forcing should be across Texas. Snow is
possible in Oklahoma, but impacts are expected to be limited. The
main impacts will likely be to travel and through reduced visibilities.

After Tuesday things quiet down across the region through the
remainder of the week. Temperatures will likely struggle to move much
on Wednesday as Arctic air tends to hang around for a while. We
should see temperatures start to rebound on Thursday with a warm up
into the weekend. Followed MOS pretty close much of the forecast. I
did go above next Sunday. I see what the ECMWF has and many of the
GFS ensembles catch the cold front also. However, if it slow down
we'll be in the 50's.

ECMWF and GFS hint at a western U.S. longwave trof just beyond this
forecast period. Could make life interesting around the 15th-19th.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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