Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for December 1 – 7, 2008.
Valid: 11/30/2008.

Highlights:

– Temperatures in the upper 40s Monday, warming to the mid/upper 60s
on Tuesday. A cool down is expected Wednesday with temperatures in
the upper 40s to mid 50s through Friday. Temperatures are expected to
be in the 50s Sat/Sun. Precip chances are low.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Sensible weather remains limited again this week as the eastern U.S.
longwave trof continues. This will result in brief warmups followed
quickly by cold fronts.

12z ECMWF is preferred overall this forecast period with some blend of
the NAM. Current eastern U.S. longwave trof is progged to move
offshore Tuesday evening. The cold surface high will migrate east as
this happens and allow southerly winds to return on Tuesday. This
will help the area warm up above normal into the 60s, after a cool day
on Monday. I'm going above GFS MOS, but not quite as high as the NAM
for Tuesday afternoon.

By Wednesday morning another northern stream trof moves across the
central U.S. and pushes a cold front through the region. Models are
similar with the cold front and impacts. This will knock highs back
down into the upper 40s/low 50s for a few days. ECMWF is preferred
here and into the later periods of the week as it is stronger with the
east coast trofs. The 144 hour panel brings another surface high into
the eastern U.S. but this one should not have a significant impact on
temperatures. GFS ensemble MOS is clustered in the 50's, which also
happens to be climo. I'll stick with those temperatures for now.

The only chance for rain this week appears to be a weak southern
stream shortwave trof that moves into the area on Wednesday as the
larger northern stream trof develops to its north. Limited moisture
should preclude much more than sprinkles.

Hurricane season ends today, what an exciting one it was!

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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