Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for November 24 – 30, 2008.
Valid: 11/23/2008.

Highlights:

– Temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s Monday – Thursday. Cooling
on Friday – Sunday with temperatures mainly in the 40s and 50s.
Showers and some isolated thunderstorms are possible for southern
Oklahoma southward into Texas late Thursday into Friday. Farther
north in Oklahoma showers are possible.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Northern stream shortwave trof is moving north of the region at this
hour and will help push a cold front through Oklahoma and parts of
Texas by late Monday. Pacific origin of the cold front will keep
temperatures from dropping too much. Tuesday and Wednesday appear
quiet. By late Thursday a southern stream shortwave trof moves into
the region. 12z GFS/ECMWF shifted southward with this system and also
have a stronger front moving through as the system approaches. The
main impacts of this system appear to be across southern Oklahoma and
Texas. However, the remainder of the state will likely see clouds
late Thursday into Friday as WAA occurs over the frontal boundary.
This solution appears reasonable as a northern stream shortwave trof
moves across Wisconsin/Great Lakes and helps the approaching cold
front move through late Thursday.

Beyond Friday forecast confidence is low as the models are hinting at
the redevelopment of the PNA pattern with a longwave trof over the
eastern U.S. The ECMWF has this trof developing on Sunday and the GFS
a little slower and farther east. Finally, going to have to watch the
closed/cutoff system near Baja by next week. Going with persistence
into the weekend as the ECMWF and GFS show some CAA on Saturday.
Sunday should moderate some as the surface high shifts east. POPs are
low everyday except for late Thursday into Friday.

Models have been hinting at something interesting in early December.
Whether we get cold temperatures, precip, or a combination thereof is
unknown. But looks like we'll get one of the three.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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