Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for November 17 – 23, 2008.
Valid: 11/16/2008.

Highlights:

– Seemingly typical mid-November week on-tap with some decent cold
air expected around Thursday. POPs remain nil through Friday. There
is some hint at precip next weekend, but chances appear low at this
point. Temperatures will generally be in the 60s and low 70s Monday –
Wednesday for Oklahoma. A cool off Thursday – Friday with
temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s, with a warmup into the upper
50s to mid 60s Saturday – Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Another quiet week weather wise with at least two cold front passages
expected. The 500mb pattern is expected to remain amplified through
late week with a long wave trof over the eastern U.S. and a ridge to
the west (PNA pattern). This will keep moisture limited through the
week and hence precip. It will also result in regular cold front the
next few days. The first front is expected late Monday and will
provide a slight cool down for the area.

A stronger cold front is likely late Wednesday into Thursday for the
entire region. This one has a decent chunk of Canadian air with it.
However, the bulk of the cold air should go east, but we'll get enough
to cool us off dramatically on Thursday and Friday.

The 12z GFS/ECMWF are at odds by the weekend with the GFS much more
amplified across the lower 48 with a ridge in the central U.S. The
ECMWF is less amplified and the ridge is farther west. At this point
I see no major sensible weather difference other than the low POPs on
the GFS as it drags a shortwave trof across the region late Friday.
Temperatures are still expected to moderate some during the weekend.

I've gone a little below GFS MOS for Thursday/Friday due to the origin
of the incoming airmass. Saturday/Sunday highs may have to come down
if the shallow cold air hangs around longer than expected.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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