Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for November 10 – 16, 2008.
Valid: 11/10/2008.

Highlights:

– Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in Oklahoma on Monday,
with more robust activity expected in Texas. In Oklahoma the primary
threat will be hail to nickel size. In Texas, large hail and
tornadoes are possible.

– Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s through
Friday. Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Precip chances are low after Tuesday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 15%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

I haven't had time to look at much model data this morning, but from
what I have seen little has changed since last night. A southern
stream shortwave trof will traverse the region this afternoon and
tonight. Limited moisture is returning across the region with only
scattered rain activity in southern Oklahoma southward through Texas.
There are lots of clouds, so heating will be an issue. However, later
this afternoon temperatures should warm in Texas and with continued
moisture advection, severe thunderstorms are possible. SPC has a
slight risk up for this area. Farther north in Oklahoma, limited
instability and elevated activity should keep the threat limited to
hail.

After today the weather quiets down with little in the way of sensible
weather until Friday. The next big weather change will take place
Friday/Saturday as a longwave trof develops over the eastern U.S. and
pulls down a decent chunk of cold air. This will keep temperature
this weekend on the cool side, but nothing odd for mid-fall. OUN
hinted at some freezing temperatures this weekend and not out of the
question given the cold air.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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