Severe Weather Discussion – 2008-14-3

Severe Weather Discussion for November 5, 2008.
Valid: 11/04/2008.

Highlights:

– Severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening
across the eastern half of Oklahoma. Primary threat is damaging wind.
Early in the event, there will be a large hail and isolated tornado
threat with discrete storms.

– High to extreme fire danger is likely in the southwestern parts of
the state Wednesday afternoon.

Discussion:

No change to forecast reasoning. 12z models are in nice agreement.
The only change is to speed up frontal timing just a little. This
takes much of western Oklahoma out of the severe threat and into the
fire threat. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be HWY 81
and east. Storms should develop by mid/late afternoon with isolated
storms possible at first. Beyond that time, upward motion will help
initiate a squall line, which should move across the eastern half of
Oklahoma.

SPC Day 2 graphic hits 30% in northeast Oklahoma and this is likely
for wind. I'll go 50% on the moderate threat in case a more
concentrated threat area evolves tomorrow. For now, moisture
limitation will keep this event from being what it could have been in
October or April.

Probabilities:

Risk area for any part of OK/TX (valid: 11/05 Day 1):

Slight: 100%
Moderate: 50%
High: 0%

Chase Status:

Level 1 – Normal

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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