Severe Weather Discussion for November 3 – November 9, 2008.
– Awesome Monday – Wednesday expected this week with temperatures in
the 70s/low 80s statewide. Thursday – Sunday will see a cool down
into the 60s.
– Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday across much of Oklahoma
and adjacent areas of north Texas.
– High to extreme fire danger is expected across the southwestern few
counties Wednesday afternoon.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 30%
– Storm Chase: 10%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
12z ECMWF model of choice this forecast period as the GFS seems to be
trending towards it and the NAM-WRF supports it through 84 hours. I'm
not going into great detail here as a special discussion regarding
Wednesday will be needed.
Northern stream longwave trof will enter the western U.S. on Tuesday
and progress into central sections late Wednesday as it wraps up into
a closed low. ECMWF takes the northern stream energy into Canada as
the southern stream closed low lumbers east. Warm temperatures will
be felt ahead of this system with some increase in moisture across
much of Oklahoma. Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of
the state Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. The 30%
represents some uncertainty as the significance of the event. Per SPC
Day 4 and recent AFDOUN, a low-end moderate is not out of the
question. I went 10% on the storm chase thing since the ECMWF timing
would certainly favor activity just west of OKC by sunset. However,
I'll be out of town, so it is up to the other guys what to do.
After the system passes north of the state early on Thursday a cold
front will cool things down a little through the remainder of the
week. ECMWF shows a surface high dropping south into the region on
Saturday, which appears to have little impact as it slides east. That
may change so I'm keeping highs in the 60s, in best agreement with the
ensemble numbers. I'm not sure what the dip in the GFS numbers
represent on Friday and I'm ignoring it for now.
POPs are nil beyond Thursday.
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