Severe Weather Discussion for October 13 – 19, 2008.
– Good chance of rain for much of Oklahoma today and tomorrow.
Temperatures will vary dramatically across the state with low 50s in
NW OK to 80s in south-central sections today. Tuesday-Wednesday
Oklahoma will be in the 50s/60s with a warming trend in 70s through
the weekend. Texas will see a strong temperature gradient this week,
with conditions about normal for this time of year.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
I haven't spent much time looking at model data for this week, but
many of the questions from last week have been answered. Large closed
low over the western U.S. is progressing north-northeast into Canada
with a southern stream shortwave trof hanging back over the
four-corner area. A cold front has progressed through much of
northwest Oklahoma this morning in response to the departing northern
stream system. 12 NAM hangs the front up in southeast Oklahoma as the
southern stream system approaches. This will create quite a
temperature gradient across Oklahoma on Tuesday.
12z NAM also indicates there is a decent chance of rain for the area
today and Tuesday along and behind the cold front. Southern stream
system moves through Kansas late Wednesday and gives the front a final
push to the south of Oklahoma.
Models now agree that a 588dm ridge will develop across the southern
U.S. in wake of the current system. They also bring a shortwave trof
through the northern U.S. and amplify it as the trof digs into the
southeast U.S. This will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air into
All in all, much needed rain today and tomorrow, with a pleasant week
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