Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for October 6 – 12, 2008.
Valid: 10/06/2008.

Highlights:

– Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the eastern half
of Oklahoma and northeast Texas later today. Primary threat is large
hail.

– A cold front moves through the region tonight with pleasant October
temperatures much of the week. Today and Tuesday we'll see the low
70s with a warm-up Wednesday-Saturday in the upper 70s. Sunday will
likely be in the mid/upper 70s.

– Severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 20%
– Storm Chase: 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Little time to review model data today, although I looked enough to
see that rather significant differences continue in the Day 5-7 time
frame.

For today, a slight chance of severe thunderstorms continues for
mainly eastern Oklahoma as the atmosphere partially recovers from
cloud cover and rain this morning. However, this recovery is isolated
and not likely to grow during the remaining sunlight hours. As such,
showers are expected with the cold front tonight with potentially an
isolated severe thunderstorm.

Tuesday – Saturday look to be pleasant as little sensible weather
occurs. Problems in the forecast do develop as the GFS is much more
progressive than the ECMWF with the projected western U.S. longwave
trof. Most forecast are siding with the ECMWF and the GFS has trended
notably in that direction. As such, this forecast has done the same.
With that said precip chances are low post-front tonight through
Saturday. Chances return on Sunday as the western U.S. longwave trof
approaches. I put a slight chance of severe in the headlines since
moisture return looks better than the current event. However, if the
12z ECMWF is correct, we may get very little until the cold front
passes through the region. Luckily that is beyond this forecast period.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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