Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for September 29 – October 5, 2008.
Valid: 09/29/2008.

Highlights:

– Another pleasant week ahead with a slight cool down in afternoon
highs. Temperatures will be in the low/mid 80s today – Wednesday,
with a cool down to the upper 70s the remainder of the week. Precip
chances are low.

– NHC is issuing discussions on Sub-Tropical Storm Laura, which
shouldn't be much of a player for the U.S.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Mid-level flow will amplify this week with a deep eastern U.S.
longwave trof and a western U.S. ridge. While this keeps precip out
of the state, it will allow for cooler air to filter into the state.
A cool front/wind shift is expected late today, taking a few degrees
off Tuesday's high temperatures. A stronger front is expected late
Wednesday, this one should at least knock us down into the upper 70s.

By late in the week the pattern starts to shift with the ridge
migrating east. Models are at odds with a southern stream shortwave
trof due in around Sunday. GFS is flipping run to run with it and
none of these really agree with the ECWMF. The other issue is lack of
moisture as the northerly flow takes dewpoints off the Gulf Coast.
For now, going low on POPs, we'll see if we can get some rain late in
the week.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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