Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for September 22 – 28, 2008.
Valid: 09/21/2008.

Highlights:

– Pleasant early fall weather to continue this week. POPs remain very
low and temperatures will be in the mid 80s, with Texas generally in
the upper 80s.

– Fall season officially starts Monday morning.

– NHC is monitoring one area near Puerto Rico for tropical development.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Another pleasant week is in store for the region. A shortwave trof
will progress through the northwest U.S. the next few days and push a
cold front towards Oklahoma. Chances are this boundary will not make
it in the state as stronger flow remains farther north. As the trof
passes well north of Oklahoma on Wednesday, a mid-level ridge will
build just west of Oklahoma. This ridge will be the dominate
influence in our weather the remainder of the forecast period. As
such, expect temperatures slightly above normal in the mid-80s with
little to no chance of rain as deep layer moisture remains confined to
the coast. The main change this week will be some moderation of night
time temperatures as low 60s dewpoints remain across the region.
Little chance in moisture values expected, although the GFS has been
hinting at a lowering of dewpoints late in the week as the Gulf flow
goes northeast. Really shouldn't matter too much for us either way.

NHC is monitoring an area near Puerto Rico and this may develop into a
tropical storm. The GFS certainly wants for it to do so, but it
doesn't hit land either way at this point.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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