Ike in the Gulf of Mexico
At 10:00am CDT –
– All prior hurricane watches and warnings have been discontinued.
– The center of Category 1 Hurricane Ike was located 430 miles
southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Movement is towards
the west-northwest at 8mph and this motion is expected for the next 24
hours. Maximum sustained winds are 90mph and Ike is expected to
become a major hurricane on Thursday. Minimum central pressure is
measured at 957mb.
– Ike is a large cyclone, do not focus on the pinpoint track or location.
– Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center
and tropical storm force winds to 205 miles.
– Oklahoma appears to be in for an excessive rain event for much of
the state this weekend.
Confidence continues to increase that Ike will make landfall between
Corpus Christi and Victoria Saturday morning. The forecast track
philosophy is unchanged for the past severe days. Ike will be moving
west-northwest on the southern side of a strong mid/upper level ridge.
A shortwave trof is progged to move into the central U.S. on Friday
and weaken the ridge. This should allow Ike to turn north into the
weakness shortly after landfall. The reliable hurricane models
GFDL/HWRF and the global models GFS/ECMWF all take Ike into the above
area Saturday morning. This is NHC's official track.
Ike's pressure has lowered to 957mb and the 700mb level has also
decreased since last night. The winds came up to 90mph per hurricane
hunter recon. All this indicates that Ike is organizing and may
rapidly intensify at some point during the next 24 hours. NHC
indicated in the 10:00am update that rapid intensification through
mid-afternoon was not likely as the inner eyewall had degraded. HWRF
and GFDL forecast remain focused on Ike becoming a Cat 4 hurricane
prior to landfall. The NHC forecast has been revised slightly upward
to 110kts or high-end Cat 3.
Oklahoma appears to be impacted by Ike as it moves rapidly north,
caught up in the mid-level flow. While the exact track of Ike will
greatly influence the rainfall distribution in the state, there seems
to be increasing confidence of an excessive rainfall event. HPC and
12z GFS paint 8-10 inches across parts of Oklahoma. As noted the
location remains dependent on the eventual track of Ike.
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