Hurricane Gustav – 2008-9

Hurricane Watches Issued for Parts of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and
Mississippi
Gustav still a Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane

At 4:00pm CDT –

– Hurricane Watch is posted from High Island, Texas eastward to the
Alabama/Florida border.

– The eye of Category 4 Hurricane Gustav is located 80 south-south
west of Havana, Cuba. Movement is towards the northwest at 15mph and
this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Maximum
sustained winds are near 150mph and Gustav may become a Category 5
hurricane tomorrow. Minimum central pressure is measured at 942mb.

– Hurricane force winds extend outward to 70 miles and tropical storm
force winds to 175 miles.

– Gustav is a large cyclone, do not focus on the pinpoint location and
forecast.

– Landfall is expected in the central Louisiana Coast around Monday afternoon.

– Tropical Storm Hanna continues north of Puerto Rico with 50mph
winds. This system may threaten the Florida Keys in a few days.

Discussion:

There is no change to the forecast track and intensity of Gustav.
Gustav is moving northwest around the western periphery of a mid-level
ridge. This track should continue for the next 48 hours. Problems
develop as Gustav gets closer to the coastline with the models
offering a variety of solutions. Current thinking is that Gustav will
make landfall near Morgan City, LA Monday afternoon. As this occurs
Gustav may start to slow down as it moves inland and on northwest into
western Louisiana/eastern Texas. Several models stall Gustav over
Texas on Wednesday. It is a tough call if this will happen, but will
continue to monitor, this potential is noted in NHC latest forecast.

Intensity wise, Gustav is done for a few hours. Once it emerges north
of Cuba, we expect that it will start to intensify again. There is
potential that Gustav will become a Category 5 hurricane on Sunday and
this is inline with the 12z GFDL. Gustav may weaken a little as it
approaches the coast on Monday, but it is expected to be at least a
Category 3 hurricane.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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