Tropical Storm Gustav – 2008-4

Gustav Stronger this Morning

At 10:00am CDT –

– Hurricane warning continues for Jamaica.

– Tropical Storm warning continues for parts of southern Cuba.

– The central of Tropical Storm Gustav was located 45 miles east of
Kingston, Jamaica. Movement is towards the west at 5mph, an increase
in forward speed continues to be expected. Maximum sustained winds
are near 70mph and strengthening is likely with Gustav becoming a
hurricane by tomorrow. Minimum surface pressure is 983mb.

– Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.

– The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Hanna. Hanna is not currently a threat to
land, but the progress of this system will have to be closely monitor.

– Interest in Texas and Louisiana should closely monitor the progress
of Gustav.

Discussion:

Gustav has continued to organized during the past 18 hours and is now
just below hurricane status. Jamaica is the only thing standing in
the way of Gustav becoming a hurricane within the short-term. I'd
expect we'd see a hurricane real soon. Once Gustav passes Jamaica it
will have plenty of warm water and a low shear environment to
intensify. The continued forecast from the NHC of a Cat 3 100kt
hurricane looks good. Towards late Sunday/Monday Gustav may undergo
some shear, but this is too far out to consider at this point.

NHC shifted Gustav back to the west this morning and this exemplifies
why people should not focus on the point forecast of Gustav. The
forecast philosophy does remain the same. Gustav is expected to round
the western edge of a ridge centered over Florida. There is some
concern about a mid-level ridge developing over the central U.S. which
may deflect Gustav more westward. As with the prior discussions, the
forecast track at 96-120 hours is quite prone to errors.

I do not plan on discussions regarding Hanna at this point. The 120
hour prog from NHC does have some concerns for the eastern U.S. around
Tuesday.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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