The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Gustav.
At 1:00pm CDT –
– Hurricane Warning is posted for parts of the Dominican Republic.
– the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was located 225 miles
south-south east of Port Au Prince Haiti. Movement is towards the
northwest at 14mph and a slight decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are 60mph and some
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Minimum surface
pressure is measured at 996mb.
– tropical storm force winds extend outward to 50 miles from the center.
Gustav has organized rapidly today and NHC has responded taking it
quickly to a tropical storm. Hurricane warnings are posted since
Gustav would not have to strengthen much to reach that level. There
seems to be little reason Gustav won’t strengthen some more, other
than getting organized. Outflow is quite restricted in the southeast
quadrant and some in the northwest. Given the intense convection
around much of the system, this may be resolved real soon.
The track forecast is very complex. A mid/upper level ridge has or
may develop just north of Gustav and many of the track models want to
take Gustav west after it passes over Cuba. The guidance envelope is
quite large and interest in the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Gustav.