Fay Approaching Florida
At 10:00pm CDT –
– Hurricane and Tropical Storm warnings continue for Florida.
– the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located 60 miles south of
Naples, FL. Movement is towards the north at 9mph. Maximum sustained
winds remain at 60mph and little change in strength is expected prior
to landfall. Minimum surface pressure is measured at 995mb.
– tropical storm force winds extend outward to 125 miles from the center.
– landfall is possible near Naples, Florida, around 2am, but is highly
dependent on any wobbling Fay does.
00z models remain tightly clustered with landfall near the Fort
Meyers/Naples area of Florida within the next few hours. This
agreement holds for about 24 hours into the central Florida Peninsula,
where serious divergence occurs. Given the weak mid-level pattern and
that Fay is a shallow system, the forecast track beyond 24 hours is
almost pointless. The end result is that the guidance envelope is
from the Georgia Coast to south of Mobile, AL. NHC is going in the
middle of the envelope and this is the best course of action. I have
attempted to keep the forecast beyond 24 hours on the low-down since
the initial landfall is the most important aspect. Key West 88D data
has a good fix on Fay as it is moving at around 355 degrees. On Fay's
current track, it may make landfall just south of Naples. However, if
it were to wobble east or west, then the landfall area will change.
I'm not going to stay up until 2am to see what it does.
Intensity wise, Fay continues to not impress me. There is finally
convection in the western semicircle but it is apparent Fay continues
to suffer from dry air entrainment along with some shear. The former
is noted on radar as a lack of convection wrapping into the center
along the east-central side of Fay. The latter is noted on Infrared
and Water Vapor imagery. Outflow has improved this evening, but still
remains restricted. The shear may be decreasing as NHC has been
noting and this would explain the development of convection in the
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