Tropical Storm Fay 2008-4

Fay just south of Key West

At 10:00am CDT –

– Hurricane Warning issued for the southwest Florida Coast from
Flamingo to Anna Maria, Island.

– Tropical Storm warning for the East Coast of Florida is extended
northward to Cocoa Beach.

– The center of Tropical Storm Fay was located 70 miles
south-southeast of Key West, Florida. Movement is towards the
north-northwest at 13mph and a turn towards the north is expected
later today with some decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained
winds are near 60mph. Minimum surface pressure is measured at 1003mb.

– Landfall is expected Tuesday morning near Fort Myers, Florida.

Discussion:

Fay continues to look unimpressive on satellite, although there
continues to be some attempts for Fay to organize. Outflow is better
in the northwest quadrant but vary restricted on the southwest flank.
Water Vapor imagery shows that Fay ingested some dry air from Cuba not
too long ago just after it emerged north of Cuba. Fay is now moving
north-northwest into a weakness in the low/mid level ridge. This
motion should continue with a more due north motion expected later
today. On this course, Fay should make landfall early Tuesday near
Fort Myers, Florida. 12z model data are tightly clustered on this
solution.

Lack of time over warm waters and some shear should prevent
significant strengthening. Models do agree that Fay will strengthen
some more, maybe to high-end tropical storm or low-end Cat 1. There
really isn't much of a difference between these two other than the
designator.

Storms strengthening shortly before landfall seems to be the theme this year.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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