Tropical Storm Fay 2008-1

The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Storm Fay.

At 7:00pm CDT –

– Tropical Storm Warnings contine for much of Cuba and surrounding areas.

– The center of Tropical Storm Fay was located 335 miles
east-southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba. Movement is towards the west at
14mph and this track is expected to continue the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds have been measured at 45mph and little change
in strength is expected during the next 24 hours. Minimum central
pressure is 1008mb.

– Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 85 miles from the center.

Discussion:

The intensity forecast is simple for the next day or so as Fay will be
near land. As such, significant strengthening is not expected and Fay
should remain a tropical storm.

The forecast track is very problematic as Fay is a shallow system and
is currently influenced by the low level easterlies. With Fay over
land one would not think there would be much intensification and Fay
should continue to be steered to the west. Fay should develop enough
to be steered more by the mid-level flow in a few days and this is
where the most uncertainity presents itself. The subtropical ridge is
rather weak for mid-August and at some point Fay should recurve. NHC
takes it through the Florida Keys and up the Florida Gulf Coast. I'm
not sure I agree at this point, but it is the going official forecast.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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