Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for August 4 – 10, 2008.
Valid: 08/03/2008.

Highlights:

– Hot temperatures Monday and Tuesday in the 103-106F range. Cooling
a little on Wednesday-Thursday into the upper 90s. And, if we're
lucky to the low/mid 90s Friday-Sunday. Texas will be about the same,
but stay a little warmer through Saturday, with the cool off on Sunday.

– Thunderstorms are possible Thursday – Sunday across the state,
especially if the NW flow and associated MCS pattern develops.

– NHC is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard. Additional
develop is possible in the Atlantic.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 20%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Admittedly I've taken much of the forecast from the NWS, but how can I
turned down such a good one from Mike Branick. Today's AFD and ZFP
from NWS OUN look good and fit what I see in the middles. I see no
reason to deviate and I think we can agree that some rain would be nice.

Until we get the rain, we must suffer through a few more hot days.
Monday and Tuesday will be in the 102-106F range across much of TX/OK
as the ridge holds firm. The area of lower temps will be along the
Gulf Coast due to moisture, weaker ridge, and Edouard.

Models indicate the ridge may start to weak by Wednesday and Edouard
will shift the surface winds to an easterly component. This should
take the edge off for much of Oklahoma and eastern Texas. Western
areas may remain in the heat. By Friday much of Oklahoma should see a
cool down into the low/mid 90s as a cold front attempts to push south
in NW flow. The models have been consistent in developing a large
eastern U.S. longwave trof, which provides the NW flow over this
region. If the front can move south of the area, this will help
temperatures go below normal. How far south the front goes will be a
function of convection as much as anything.

The potential for northwest flow along with seasonable heat and
moisture mandates severe probabilities a little above climo.

I'm already issuing discussions on Edouard, so will not duplicate
here. NHC is watching other areas for development.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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