Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for July 28 – August 3, 2008.
Valid: 07/27/2008.

Highlights:

– Continued summertime heat across the region with mid/upper 90s
Monday and Wednesday, warming to the upper 90s to 103F range Thursday
– Sunday.

– The remnants of Dolly look to provide some relief across the state
Monday and Tuesday. The best chance for rain will be NW/North, but
the rest of us may benefit from the associated cloud cover.

– Tropics are quiet today and the models don't show much activity the
next few days.

Probabilities:

Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
Storm Chase: < 5%
Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Models agree that the upper and mid level circulations of Dolly will
move into Oklahoma early this week. The GFS seems to be odd model out
as it stalls the system over Oklahoma and then drifts it back to the
south as the model strengthens the ridge just west of Oklahoma. NWS
offices are going with the ECMWF and I do agree this is a better
solution. As such the remains of Dolly will move into Oklahoma on
Monday and leaves by Wednesday. The weakness in the ridge along with
Dolly should allow for showers and some thunderstorms across the state
Mon-Wed. The best area appears to be NW and North OK per ECMWF/NWS
Offices.

12z ECMWF indicates that the 500dm 594 dm ridge will remain nearby and
build back over the region by late in the week. This is in contrast
to the GFS, but I have sided with the model closer to what we've
experienced the past week. I think the GFS is wrong and will keep
POPs out later in the week and temperatures slightly above
climatology. The temperatures are not unusual for this time of year
and represent typical mid-summer heat.

NHC is watching one area of disturbed weather in the eastern Atlantic,
but other than that the tropics appear to be quiet.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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