Dolly nearing Hurricane Status
At 1:00pm CDT:
– Hurricane and Tropical Storm warnings continue for parts of the
southern Texas Gulf Coast.
– The center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located 195 miles southeast
of Brownsville, Texas. Movement is towards the northwest at 10mph.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70mph and Dolly is expected to become
a hurricane by this evening. Minimum surface pressure is measured at
– Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center.
– Landfall is expected near Brownsville between 8:00am – 1:00pm on Wednesday.
Track forecast remains unchanged, NHC has done a great job with it.
The best guess target area is 30 miles either side of Brownsville.
This is inline with model forecast and current WSR-88D data from
Brownsville, Texas, which has a good fix on the center of Dolly.
The intensity forecast remains problematic as Dolly continues to
slowly strengthen. The expected explosive growth (which we have seen
a lot of the past few years) has not occurred. Since Dolly has
another 24 hours over the warm Gulf waters, it is likely to become a
hurricane. The amount of time for anything more than a Cat 1 appears
to be limited.
Dolly is expected to further slow down just before landfall and as it
slowly moves across the shoreline. As such the primary impact from
this storm maybe widespread flash flooding. 12z NAM/GFS runs both
point a small area of 9 inch rainfall totals with common 4-5 inches in
south Texas and northeastern old Mexico. Given the drought conditions
in-place in this region, rapid runoff is possible with the associated
threat of flash flooding.
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