Tropical Storm Dolly – 2008-2

Hurricane Watch Issued for parts of Texas

At 10:00am CDT:

– A hurricane watch is posted for parts of the Texas Coast from
Brownsville northward to Port O'Connor.

– A tropical storm watch is posted for Port O'Connor northward to San
Luis Pass.

– the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located 55 miles
north-northeast of Progreso, Mexico. Movement is towards the
west-northwest at 18mph, with a slight slow down in forward speed
tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are 50mph and Dolly is expected to
become a hurricane by tomorrow. Minimum central pressure is 1005mb.

– Tropical storm force winds extend out to 175 miles from the center.

Discussion:

Little time to review model data, so will take this issuance from NHC.
I completely agree with their forecast, so not like it is a big deal.

Dolly is now over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and will
remain in warm SST's the next few days. An upper level ridge is
in-place over Dolly, which should assist in outflow from the system.
The limitation from rapid strengthening is how large Dolly currently
is and developing an inner core. Either way, Dolly is expected to
become at least a Cat 1 hurricane by landfall.

The track is also a problem as Dolly is expected to slow down some as
the mid-level ridge over the southern U.S. weakens some. The models
are rather divided with half in Texas and the other half in Mexico.
NHC takes Dolly just north of Brownsville and for now this is the best
option.

Changes in track and intensity are likely and special discussions will
be issued for significant changes.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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