Severe Weather Discussion for July 14 – 20, 2008.
– Near normal temperatures Monday – Wednesday, with a warming trend to
slightly above normal by the weekend. Temperatures will be in the low
90s Monday – Tuesday, warming into the mid 90s throughout the week.
– Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, again
– Bertha continues in the Atlantic and another tropical wave has NHC's
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Awesome day outside, amazing to get a high of 83F in July without a
lot of convection. The mid-July cold front was a nice surprise, may
be even a little global cooling.
This forecast period will feature typical summertime heat with highs
near normal, currently 93F in OKC. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be
in the low 90s across much of Oklahoma as the cold front remains south
of the area. By late Tuesday the front will be washing out and may
provide enough focus for showers and thunderstorms across
western/central Oklahoma. Severe thunderstorms should be at a
minimum, but enough of a chance exists for low-end severe of 5%.
After Tuesday highs should warm into the mid 90s as mid-level heights
build to above 588dm across the entire area. This will be the pattern
through Saturday. Model runs have been off/on with a weakness
developing in the subtropical ridge by the weekend. The 12z GFS isn't
as bullish with the weakness over Oklahoma but does bring in a
shortwave trof north of the state around Sunday. This would help push
a weak cold front towards the state, which could gain some traction if
storms develop along it. With heights below 594dm, rain is possible.
Models keep the best QPF over northwest OK and the panhandle, but for
now will keep low pops area wide for Sunday.
Models through July 29th do not show heights much above the current
levels, which should provide for temperatures in the mid-90s. We'll
see, but we're approaching the hottest time of year, so wouldn't be
surprised to see some upper 90s in 7-10 days.
The tropics are busy, maybe a little more active than typical
mid-July. Tropical Storm Bertha continues near Bermuda with no
impacts to land at this point. Given that it has been stationary and
is suffering from cold water upwelling it probably won't do much
significant impact to anything it hits. It may be a worse
extratropical system than tropical. NHC is monitoring a tropical wave
in the eastern Atlantic, which may become a tropical depression within
the next few days.
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