Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for June 23 – 29, 2008.
Valid: 06/23/2008.

Highlights:

– Typical early summer week on-tap for the region with highs in the
low to mid 90s in OKC with upper 90s west and in Texas.

– Isolated thunderstorms are possible any given day across Oklahoma
and the TX panhandle, but the overall chance is below 20% at any given
spot.

– Tropics are seasonably quiet and looks to remain so this week.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Longwave trof will remain across the eastern U.S. for a few more days
and start to move east late Wednesday. As this happen the mid-level
flow across the lower 48 will deamplify. This will be the general
trend as the main jet is along the northern border. Models indicate
that a shortwave trof will amplify over eastern Canada next Sunday
with stronger westerly flow across the Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley regions.

Across Oklahoma heights will rise above 588dm this week and in general
will remain that way. With stronger flow to the north of Oklahoma and
somewhat warmer mid-level temperatures; the chances of organized
convection appears low. The probability is set at 10% for the
isolated stuff that develops each evening and is common this time of
year. Absent the 594dm ridge of death, isolated storms will be
possible about each day.

Models indicate no cold fronts this week and as such temperatures
should be in the low/mid 90s all week. The ground will start to dry
out later in the week from the widespread rainfall the past few weeks.

12z GFS/ECMWF indicate quiet tropics this week and there is nothing of
interest from NHC. I did read an interesting article in the Houston
Chronicle showing how the SST's (sea-surface temperatures) in the Gulf
are a few degrees cooler this year than last year. Should be
interesting to see how that plays out.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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