Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for June 16 – 22, 2008.
Valid: 06/16/2008.

Highlights:

– Severe thunderstorms are possible across Oklahoma and the Texas
panhandle through Friday.

– Temperatures will be highly variable this week due to debris clouds
and outflow. However, general temperatures across much of the state
will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

– Summer starts on Friday.

– Tropics remain seasonably quiet.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 30%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

MCS season is in full swing across Oklahoma as several rounds have
already occurred. Last night did not go off as planned but there were
isolated areas of intense activity, mainly in the northeast part of
Oklahoma.

The forecast for today is somewhat complicated by the ongoing activity
in eastern Oklahoma with the outflow boundary moviing southward.
Strongest diurnal heating is occurring in the western parts of
Oklahoma. I'd expect this to move east today as the western edge of
the outflow boundary weakens. Farther east, temperatures will most
likely be cool with highs reaching the low 80s, except for southeast
sections where highs will be more typical of mid-June in the upper
80s. SPC Day 1 shows that storms should develop in KS/CO this
afternoon and organize into an MCS. 06z GFS picks up on the vortmax
and hits at an MCS moving across the western half of the state.

Tuesday should see a break from the MCS activity, although there could
be some storms in eastern Oklahoma which is expected to sit out
tonight. Wednesday night may be a more active period as the
atmosphere recovers and the GFS hints at another organized MCS. This
pattern looks to hold through Sunday as the 588dm ridge remain to our
west and a longwave trof to our northeast. Assuming the GFS is
correct, a pattern shift may be in store for early next week.

Currently cannot go any higher than 30% on the severe probs even
though MCS's can produce widespread damaging winds. Childress last
night is an example and also Adair County got hit. If one particular
day looks significant a short fuse discussion may be needed.

As with last week I haven't looked at the tropics at all. I don't see
much and NHC certainly isn't talking about much.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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