Severe Weather Discussion for June 9 – 15, 2008.
– Typical early June week on-tap for the region. Temperatures will be
in the 70s to low 80s across much of Oklahoma on Monday. Then a warm
up to the upper 80s/low 90s Tuesday-Thursday. Friday looks to be in
the mid-80s with temperatures near 90 Sat/Sun.
– Tropics are seasonably quiet and expected to stay that way this week.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 25%
– Storm Chase: 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
12z models are not radically different than prior runs and the net
result appears to be an average early June week for the region. An
MCS is getting things together in northwest Oklahoma where softball
size hail has been occurring this afternoon. Expect that storms will
continue to organize along the frontal boundary in northern Oklahoma
and then start working south as a cold pool develops. Flash flooding
is a distinct threat in northern Oklahoma and the NWS has a flash
flood watch up for this threat.
The weather appears to be somewhat quiet on Tuesday into Wednesday as
temperatures warm. A longwave trof is progged to move across the
central U.S. with the main part of this trof in the northern U.S. As
such Oklahoma will only get brushed by it on Thursday. However, this
may be enough to set off another MCS late Thursday into Friday. NWS
offices talked about it, but OUN didn't put it in the zones. I'm
going to add it in and lower temperatures for Friday based on the MCS
passage. If I'm wrong, then temperatures will be much warmer than
The GFS has obvious grid scale convective feedback issues late Friday
into Saturday. This is reflected in the 500mb and QPF fields on the
12z run. However, I do think the above mentioned MCS is likely.
Storms may occur in southern Oklahoma Saturday, but confidence is too
low for POPs at this point. Heights are between 582-588dm during
this period for much of Oklahoma and not high enough to rule out
isolated thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
At this point low-end severe weather is expected on Monday and again
late Thursday into Friday. Now, this doesn't mean there won't be
localized large hail reports or strong winds; but an organized severe
weather outbreak requiring discussions is not in the offering. Last
Thursday was certainly an impressive day. There were almost 100
severe wx reports in Oklahoma with none of them tornadoes. A 98mph
wind report was measured in Alfalfa County. However a brief tornado
did occur in Fort Gibson on Friday, which btw was not warned.
While I haven't spent anytime looking at the tropics for this week,
the NHC isn't talking about much. Time of year would argue that
things will remain quiet.
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