Severe Weather Discussion for May 26 – June 1, 2008.
– Active storm pattern to continue through Wednesday for the region.
Things will quiet down late Wednesday into Thursday.
– Severe thunderstorms are possible across northern Oklahoma Friday
– Temperatures will be well above normal Monday and Tuesday in
Oklahoma with a cool down on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures
should warm back above normal Friday – Sunday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 40%
– Storm Chase: 75%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Very active week occurred across the region, in contrast to my
discussion from last week. Models did a real poor job handling the
Omega block, but that's not a big deal. Oklahoma had at least six
tornadoes in two days and potentially more once damage assessments are
Mid-level pattern deamplifies this week as the Omega Block breaks
down. Model show a shortwave trof lifting out across the northern
U.S. on Monday. This may result in severe thunderstorms across parts
of northwest Oklahoma per Day 2. A cold front is pushed into the
state on Tuesday with another run of severe thunderstorms possible,
per Day 3. Things quiet down in Oklahoma Wednesday and Thursday as
the front ends up in Texas.
On Friday another shortwave trof approaches the region and provides a
threat for severe thunderstorms in northwest Oklahoma and Kansas. SPC
Day 5 looks good and tend to agree with the potential. Temperatures
should be quite warm with tropical Gulf moisture. Wind fields look
decent and should provide enough support for supercells.
Looking at possible chase days Monday and Friday. Monday is very
contingent on what happens tonight. Given the developing MCS in the
Texas panhandle there may be too much disruption to the atmosphere,
but we'll see. Friday looks quite interesting and for now will
monitor. Time of year and lack of significant will keep the special
discussions at bay for now. While prototypical days have been
limited, Oklahoma has already seen upwards of 50 tornadoes this year.
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