Severe Weather Discussion – 2008-12-4

Severe Weather Discussion for May 26, 2008.
Valid: 05/26/2008.

Highlights:

– Active severe weather day is likely across much of Oklahoma, but in
particular areas west of a line from Hollis to Clinton to Ponca City.
This area will have the potential for tornadoes and destructive hail
during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

– Later in the evening the rest of the state, generally north of a
line from Walters to Pauls Valley to Holdenville, there will be at a
threat for destructive winds tonight.

Discussion:

Atmosphere is rapidly destabilizing in wake of MCS that moved across
Kansas and parts of northern Oklahoma this morning. Since the rich
Gulf moisture inflow was not impacted, this air will rapidly move
north into northern Oklahoma and NW OK/SW KS. Dewpoints have already
recovered to the upper 60s in far northwest Oklahoma. Current SBCAPE
values are 3000 J/Kg with MLCAPE rather low @500 J/Kg. Expect that
both of these values will increase during the day. As subsidence from
earlier MCS decreases across the Texas panhandle this afternoon,
severe thunderstorms should rapidly develop in the 3-5pm time frame
along the dryline.

These storms will move off the dryline and given favorable
speed/directional shear should become mature supercells. Outflow
boundaries from overnight convection should provide a focus for
tornadoes as they locally enhance low level helicity. As with the
past few days, destructive hail to baseball size is also likely. The
most favored area for this activity again is west of a line from
Hollis to Clinton to Ponca City.

Later in the evening as the storms along the cold front in Kansas and
those in northwest Oklahoma merge, a large mesoscale convective system
(MCS) should form. This will promote a widespread destructive wind
threat across much of northern and central Oklahoma during the
overnight hours.

Probabilities:

None, as the threat should decrease after today.

Chase Status:

Level 4 – Going to Gage at 13:00 CDT.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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